By Adam Carabine
With the playoffs in full swing now, the StatChat Power Rankings are focusing in on the 16 Cup Series Playoff Drivers. Rankings are determined using a large number of statistical inputs, with most emphasis on the last 5 races
Harrison Burton – This week: 16th – Last week: 14th
The fact that Burton is coming into Bristol just 20 points below the cutline says maybe more about the rest of the playoff field than it does about his performance. He’ll need a miracle to make it to the next round, but stranger things have happened!
Ryan Blaney – This week: 15th – Last week: 9th
While Blaney had a good finish in Atlanta (P3), he crashed out in the second lap of Darlington, and then did it again on the first lap of Watkins Glen. At +30 to the cutline, he’s likely okay unless there’s another disaster for him at Bristol.
Chase Briscoe – This week: 14th – Last week: 16th
No one had Briscoe making the playoffs, but a walk-off win at Darlington changed that. Now he’s +6 to the cutline with Bristol remaining. He might be able to pull this off and make it to the next round. He’s certainly got momentum on his side.
Martin Truex Jr. – This week: 13th – Last week: 15th
After just squeaking into the playoffs, Truex has finished 35th and 20th in the two playoff races so far. Still, he’s only 13 points out of the next round – it’s not impossible but it’ll be hard.
Tyler Reddick – This week: 12th – Last week: 2nd
Reddick looked strong in Atlanta after clinching the Regular Season Championship the week before in Darlington. An uncharacteristic P27 at a road course tumbles him to the bottom half of the Power Rankings, but he’s likely safe to pencil into your Round of 12.
Daniel Suarez – This week: 11th – Last week: 3rd
Suarez has been a surprise in this year’s playoffs. Though it’s only been two races so far, he’s got the best average finish of any playoff driver (P2 and P13). He is 5th in the standings right now, which is likely safe into the Round of 12.
William Byron – This week: 10th – Last week: 6th
It’s been a quiet playoff for Byron so far. A 9th placed finish at Atlanta is nothing to scoff at, but he followed it up with a P34 at Watkins Glen. After such a strong start to the season, he’s been a little too quiet, but if he can survive Bristol his playoff point cushion might help him make it a few rounds.
Denny Hamlin – This week: 9th – Last week: 4th
After a baffling strategy call at Atlanta had him finish 24th, he needed a good day at Watkins Glen to stay afloat. An unfortunate penalty that was only Toyota’s fault put him in a bit of a hole to start the playoffs, but he didn’t exactly help his chances at Watkins Glen. He sits 6 points out of the next round heading to Bristol, though his 4 wins there give hope that he’ll make it to the next round.
Ty Gibbs – This week: 8th – Last week: 7th
The young phenom might not have the finishing positions he’d like, but he’s scored stage points in 3 of the 4 stages so far in the playoffs, giving him just enough of a boost to be inside the playoff picture for now (+6 to the cutoff line). Bristol is unpredictable, but Toyotas tend to fare well there.
Alex Bowman – This week: 7th – Last week: 8th
It seems alll Alex Bowman needed was a little bit of a push. Start questioning whether his seat is safe for next year, and he will fight back tooth and nail. A Top-5 at Atlanta, and a solid 31 points earned at Watkins Glen, and Bowman almost clinches a spot in the Round of 12 already. There are some scenarios where he could miss, but it would take a catastrophe.
Joey Logano – This week: 6th – Last week: 10th
The reason Logano is so low, despite already winning his way into the next round, is because the formula takes the previous five races into account – not just the playoffs. Coming into the playoffs, Logano was ranked 27th of all drivers, and that included a couple of DNFs in a row at Michigan and Daytona. If he keeps up his current pace, he’ll continue climbing to the top.
Brad Keselowski – This week: 5th – Last week: 5th
It’s a shame that Keselowski’s finishing positions haven’t resulted in more points, as he’s actually had a solid playoff run so far, if you look at the underlying data. Critics might say he’s been a bit too conservative, and that doesn’t help the fact that he’s facing a -12 gap to the playoff cut line. He’ll need some help to get to the next round, but it’s doable.
Chase Elliott – This week: 4th – Last week: 11th
Though it seems that Chase Elliott’s road course prowess has slipped some in the Next-Gen era, he’s still sitting comfortably at +30 to the cut line. Throw in the fact that he’s the best current driver at Bristol by average finish, and this will be a big shock if he’s not in the Round of 12.
Kyle Larson – This week: 3rd – Last week: 13th
He’s shown speed, but he’s lacked consistency over the last few weeks. At the Southern 500, he was the best car for a long time, but couldn’t close out the deal. He crashed out early at Atlanta due to a driver error, and his Top-15 at Watkins Glen wasn’t anything to write home about. Yes, he’s +26 to the cut line, but he could and should be higher up.
Austin Cindric – This week: 2nd – Last week: 12th
Two playoff races in, he’s got two Top 10s. You can’t ask for much more. He’s +44 to the cut line, and looking like a sure thing to make the next round of the playoffs. Did anyone have him being 3rd in points on their Playoff Bingo Card? I certainly didn’t, but he’s earned it.
Christopher Bell – This week: 1st – Last week: 1st
Bell is making a case for being the top championship contender in the field right now. His consistency over the last weeks has been unmatched – he’s finished five of the last six races in the Top-15, including three Top 5s. Watch for him to make a strong push for the trophy in Phoenix.
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